Sunday, August 21, 2011
red queens, redbox, red logos, in and out of the red
A recent course assignment called for the viewing of a movie based on the work Philip K. Dick. As I looked through the list of available movie choices, I hoped I would be able to see something new. That hope was dashed because, well, I’m lazy and impatient. I didn’t want to wait for a DVD to be shipped to me and I didn’t want to leave my house to go pick up something from the library or the neighborhood video spot, Casa Video, so I went with what was streaming on Netflix, Blade Runner (maybe I’m secretly brilliant because there are talks of a Blade Runner follow up). I curled up with my notebook computer and watched as the protagonist fell prey to human emotions as his mission to eradicate the planet of the remaining replicants is complicated by his romantic interest in one (or is she human?!).
I see the current business of DVDs as evolve or die. Redbox is attracting many and making money but it is a dying market as technology continues to develop and file formats change to reduce demand on bandwidth. Will it be dead tomorrow? No, there is still a large audience interested in renting and purchasing DVDs – collectors, owners of home entertainment systems not designed to stream online materials, those unable to afford Internet connected devices and/or connectivity, etc; but that audience is declining in size.
However streaming media is an excellent example of the Red Queen’s hypothesis as expanded upon by Dr. David Thornburg AND the hypothesis increasing returns put forth by Dr. W. Brian Arthur. The Red Queen’s hypothesis, simply put, is evolve faster or die while increasing returns lauds that “for that which is ahead to get further ahead, for that which loses advantage to lose further advantage” (Arthur, 1996, p. 1). Streaming video or video-on-demand is developing at a rate that paid cable stations are scrambling to come up with the technology and planning necessary to compete with the likes of Netflix while Netflix continues to hold onto its grasp on the market by creating more partnerships with various broadcasting companies to increase offerings and turn around time from original air date (theatrical releases along with cable and network T.V.) to availability to its subscription base. Because Netflix is so much further ahead in the evolutionary process, I believe that other companies like Amazon and Hulu will continue to fall further and further behind with the only options available to them are to either build better networks to ‘lock in’ on the market or develop a better technology/system/process to head Netflix off at the pass.
I see the current business of DVDs as evolve or die. Redbox is attracting many and making money but it is a dying market as technology continues to develop and file formats change to reduce demand on bandwidth. Will it be dead tomorrow? No, there is still a large audience interested in renting and purchasing DVDs – collectors, owners of home entertainment systems not designed to stream online materials, those unable to afford Internet connected devices and/or connectivity, etc; but that audience is declining in size.
However streaming media is an excellent example of the Red Queen’s hypothesis as expanded upon by Dr. David Thornburg AND the hypothesis increasing returns put forth by Dr. W. Brian Arthur. The Red Queen’s hypothesis, simply put, is evolve faster or die while increasing returns lauds that “for that which is ahead to get further ahead, for that which loses advantage to lose further advantage” (Arthur, 1996, p. 1). Streaming video or video-on-demand is developing at a rate that paid cable stations are scrambling to come up with the technology and planning necessary to compete with the likes of Netflix while Netflix continues to hold onto its grasp on the market by creating more partnerships with various broadcasting companies to increase offerings and turn around time from original air date (theatrical releases along with cable and network T.V.) to availability to its subscription base. Because Netflix is so much further ahead in the evolutionary process, I believe that other companies like Amazon and Hulu will continue to fall further and further behind with the only options available to them are to either build better networks to ‘lock in’ on the market or develop a better technology/system/process to head Netflix off at the pass.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Disrupted by my Second Life
My understanding of definition of disruptive technologies is this, it is a new technology that comes about and shakes things up. It is usually something different and sort of off the projected path. It is also something that is accessible and quickly adopted, at least by individual consumers.
Second Life has the potential to be a disruptive technology because it is shaking things up. It makes others stop and rethink how to socialize, entrepreneurlize, and profitize (do not invoke the spirit of Webster, these are not real words) in an alternate reality. It has been easily adopted by early adopters of technology and has the potential to climb the curve because it is an open source technology,
Second Life is replacing chat rooms and is reminiscent of party lines ("call 1-550-1550 to be a party animal that’s all you got to know, Talkabout"). It has the potential to displace conference room, training facilities, classrooms, museums, storefronts, coffeehouses, etc, etc, etc. As an educator for an online school, I welcome the virtual classroom! Live instruction, global presence, simulations, opportunity to differentiate instruction for individual students, minimal inappropriate classroom disruptions, attend professional conferences without the cost of traveling abroad, and the list of teacher wants goes on and on.
These virtual worlds are going to be the most common way as human beings we use the electronics of the Internet to be together, to consume information.
As a social person who prefers to stay home than navigate crowds of unfamiliar people in unfamiliar places, Second Life allows me to come and go as I please. I can attend parties, hit a coffee shop, drop in on a live show, take in a lecture, and go for a long walk (or flight) without leaving the comfort of my own home.
As an educator for an online school with teachers that span the great (at least size wise) state of Arizona, Second Life can bring us close together without travel, lodging, child/adult/pet care related issues that are associated with in person trainings. Second Life would make collaborating easier and would also help those who need that one-on-one/face-to-face interaction, get some of those needs met when the real reality won’t allow for it.
The potential has not yet been fully realized and a replacement may emerge but it will reach beyond where Second Life has take us thus far, to the place some of us expect virtual worlds will go; a world within our computers.
Additional information:
School and Second Life on edutopia.org
Second Life and student exchange on edutopia.org
Collaboration and Second Life on gigaom.com
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011
Speak and Spell rhymes with….
Technological developments are sometimes reminiscent of technological developments of the past. Interactive whiteboards are reminiscent of overheads projectors, which are reminiscent of chalkboards, which are paper and pencil, which are…well…you get the picture.
Speak and Spell is one of those technologies. Speak and Spell would not typically come to mind when considering the evolutionary process of technology but being in the process of reading a work by Sherry Turkle, The Second Self, and having recently come across a Droid app that mimics the device’s purpose, it’s an excellent example of what has been and what is.
OK so what does it remind me of?!?! Why index cards, of course! Granted they don’t say the words but my dad did. Nonetheless, they were the prompts used to practice spelling and mathematical skills.
The Speak and Spell “was, perhaps, one of the first consumer electronics products based on DSP [Digital Signal Processing] technology.” What’s DSP? That’s the technology that brings us medical imaging and seismic data processing but it’s also one of the technologies that bring us speech processing and recognition. The Speak and Spell advanced alternative and augmentative communication devices; led to the development of consumer speech-to-text and text-to-speech programs, including talking dictionaries and calculators; and MP3s. What will it evolve into? I really don’t know. Maybe it could be used to improve upon technologies that augment and/or replace the physical structures used for hearing and speech. Maybe it could create algorithms to understand the sound patterns of animals and finally give Fido a voice. Maybe it could be used to determine potential problems with gas and oil lines before disasters occur. Maybe it could decode brainwaves into language for those that have paralysis or other such disorders that prevent even the muscular means with which to create sound.
Since the technology’s use is so far reaching in the first place, it seems only fitting to say that it could evolve into anything and that only time will tell what it will become.
Speak and Spell is one of those technologies. Speak and Spell would not typically come to mind when considering the evolutionary process of technology but being in the process of reading a work by Sherry Turkle, The Second Self, and having recently come across a Droid app that mimics the device’s purpose, it’s an excellent example of what has been and what is.
OK so what does it remind me of?!?! Why index cards, of course! Granted they don’t say the words but my dad did. Nonetheless, they were the prompts used to practice spelling and mathematical skills.
The Speak and Spell “was, perhaps, one of the first consumer electronics products based on DSP [Digital Signal Processing] technology.” What’s DSP? That’s the technology that brings us medical imaging and seismic data processing but it’s also one of the technologies that bring us speech processing and recognition. The Speak and Spell advanced alternative and augmentative communication devices; led to the development of consumer speech-to-text and text-to-speech programs, including talking dictionaries and calculators; and MP3s. What will it evolve into? I really don’t know. Maybe it could be used to improve upon technologies that augment and/or replace the physical structures used for hearing and speech. Maybe it could create algorithms to understand the sound patterns of animals and finally give Fido a voice. Maybe it could be used to determine potential problems with gas and oil lines before disasters occur. Maybe it could decode brainwaves into language for those that have paralysis or other such disorders that prevent even the muscular means with which to create sound.
Since the technology’s use is so far reaching in the first place, it seems only fitting to say that it could evolve into anything and that only time will tell what it will become.